Six Big Forecasts: 2013 Semiconductor Industry

The year 2012 is full of passion, fantasy, strange and uncertain, many people are thinking about the semiconductor industry in 2013, what will it be? Is it worse than 2012 or bright spots? What actions will semiconductor giants have? What are the performances of local companies in this arena? Based on the recent exchanges with senior professionals in the semiconductor industry, the six semiconductor industry forecasts for 2013 are summarized for your reference and welcome discussion.

Prediction one: Intel's new CEO will develop fab generation industry, and will lift up individual manufacturers of patented weapon repairs

As a semiconductor leader, Intel’s lead in semiconductor process and technology is undoubted. In the struggle with ARM, it is not lost to technology, not to the ecosystem but to business model. Intel’s previous business model was Based on the closed high-margin PC system, entering the era of mobile Internet, we must first address the issue of gross profit, so we predict that Intel's new CEO will take two major measures: First, open fab foundry business, this aspect can make up for the special aspects of Cost, Intel may cooperate with Apple and may also cooperate with Qualcomm to help them OEM chips. Second, they may raise their patented weapons to stop competitors from developing in the mobile Internet space. Intel's processors, connections, wireless technologies, and semiconductors There are a lot of patents on process technology. There have been no patents to repair other manufacturers because people are irrelevant and now they are fighting directly, so this will become an effective weapon.

Intel is expected to take the system vendor, so large system manufacturers will encounter trouble, but Intel's repair is estimated to be a big brand business, local manufacturers will not be too much interest.

Prediction II: Apple will enter the field of accessories

Apple's layout in the product area has basically been completed. From the point of view of Apple's product interface technology, Apple may launch Apple accessories in 2013. If you pay attention, you will find that at CES, the most innovative product is an accessory product. Now, mobile flat-panel TVs are very powerful. What is missing are some unique and creative accessories. The profits of gadgets may be even higher than the original products. We have already seen that Apple’s accessories are now very rich. , And the price is high, in the future Apple will use its cloud technology and wireless technology to launch some unique innovative accessories, which will also trigger the imitation of local manufacturers, you can pay attention.

Prediction 3: Microsoft may really want to buy Nokia

Microsoft has now been forced to a dead end. This year's light-playing software is clearly impracticable. It is necessary to take a soft and hard pass. Apple has taken the lead in breaking through the integration of hardware and software. Microsoft must acquire a hardware vendor. Nokia is very good. The acquisition targets patents and technologies, and now the two companies are doing well. The future will come together.

In 2012, some forward-thinking companies proposed the development of domestically-made operating systems. In the future, the demand for local OSs may be even stronger. Because Android systems are difficult to integrate with native hardware, the user experience has always been difficult to rival that of Apple and other products.

Prediction 4: The M-shaped market for mobile phones is established. Manufacturers can find their own positioning as early as possible.

Many people think that the healthy market should be pyramid-type, but unfortunately, the future mobile phone tablet market will be M-type, and some people say it is an hourglass type, this market is characterized by big brands such as Apple's Samsung occupy high-end ownership For most of the profits, the remaining manufacturers competed for the remaining profits whether they had branded or did not occupy the low end of the brand. There is no middle brand. From the current market, the middle brands are gradually withdrawing. If you pay attention, you will find that in the past two years, those local brands have faded. Although there are a large number of new brands, it is difficult to rise to the middle brands. status. For local companies to obtain better profits, they should seek opportunities in the industry sector to segment the flat-panel market.

Prediction 5: Huawei's ZTE Mobile Phone Returns to Operator Customization Market

Although this year's smart machine market is hot, but everyone's profits are poor, an internal research report shows that some well-known smart phone brands such as millet, Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo are in a loss in the mobile phone business, this business model is now It is unhealthy. After experiencing the madness of 2012, in 2013, Huawei ZTE, etc. may return to operators to customize the market. This market is profitable. Once these enterprises return to the operator's customized market, the development space of other mobile phone manufacturers will face further pressure. Competition will be even more intense.

Prediction 6: The mobile phone chip "nuclear war" returns to rationality?

In 2012, smart phone chips staged a "nuclear war", from single-core to dual-core, quad-core or even eight-core products, but we have to see that Apple iphone5 is only a dual-core product, and the current market is not really targeted at quad-core or even More nuclear software development tools, in actual operation, the majority of multi-core processors is a nuclear processor, so-called multi-core not only increases power consumption but also increases the cost, some manufacturers have proposed some innovative architecture In 2013, mobile phone manufacturers may return to rationality. Considering mobile phone design from the perspective of system cost and power consumption, they will really consider the scenario from the perspective of mobile phone user experience. This will allow the mobile phone chip "nuclear war" to return to rationality, which is undoubtedly for users. Benefits.

Finally, I would like to make more remarks, hoping that everyone can learn lessons from the 2012 smart phone losing money. This will be beneficial to the long-term development of the company. In my trip to Silicon Valley in October this year, the founder of a high-margin company in the semiconductor field said bluntly. It is not unreasonable to say that "large and low gross profit is not a healthy business model." Local companies need to go further and need a sustainable and healthy business model.