Big cows say that artificial intelligence still needs to be overwhelmed by humans.

We all know that although the rapid development of AI has caused many people to fear that they will not be able to protect their jobs, most experts believe that they don't have to worry too much. Because people's needs will change as the situation changes, eventually there will be new jobs.

"The turmoil is possible, but I don't think it will bring us higher unemployment," Goldman Sachs network analyst Heath Terry wrote in a November report.

On March 25th, the 2017 Annual Meeting of Boao Forum for Asia was held in Boao, Hainan. Baidu President Zhang Yaqin, Sogou CEO Wang Xiaochuan, Tsinghua University professor Lu Bai, WTO chief economist Zhang Shouyi, Hanson RoboTIcs chief scientist Ben Goertzel, and small i robot founder Yuan Hui discussed the future of artificial intelligence technology in the "Artificial Intelligence" sub-forum development of.

Sogou CEO Wang Xiaochuan said that it is impossible for artificial intelligence to replace people. He looked at the problem from two dimensions: "People are stupid, machines are more stupid. From the 1960s to the 1980s, rule-oriented artificial intelligence failed. The second time, people want to give the answer to the machine, but the machine can't. Cognizing the world is also very stupid. This is the third time, through big data to teach the routine to the machine, repetitive things let the machine learn, so this is called machine learning, has not come out of this era, it is learning repetitive Things can be repeated many times before they can do it."

He said: "So at this stage we can see that the machine has not gone out of the repetitive thing. We know speech recognition, but when we put two sounds together, they are superimposed on one piece. At this time, the machine has not seen it, no way. Identification. People are ok, I can also distinguish multiple people, but the machine can't. On the intelligence level, the machine can only handle the routines that have been seen, and complex systems can't do it."

Zhang Yaqin, president of Baidu, said that artificial intelligence can replace people. It is too early to talk about this issue. It is a bit like an anxiety on whether there will be traffic jams on Mars. "I will think that it will be possible in the future," he said. "But the current methods used by artificial intelligence, such as deep learning, are impossible. He is studying life science, human brain science, now we The deep learning used is basically not related to the human brain, whether it is a convolutional neural network or a recurrent neural network. However, the convolution has some inspiration, and there are some four layers of visual understanding and laws. But overall, it is still the third. Big data, big models, big calculations, and many flaws, there are still many problems. Artificial intelligence itself is not mysterious, more than 60 years, after three stages. From the earliest logic rules, logical reasoning, to the following knowledge experts The system, the current big data-based deep learning. It has been for many years, not just emerging."

Han Go RoboTIcs chief scientist Ben Goertzel said at the 2017 Boao Forum for Asia that artificial intelligence will be able to do all the work people do in the next few decades and be better than people, so from an economic point of view, I think artificial intelligence can replace humans, including simple, purely physical labor, and management positions. This is inevitable. However, this does not mean that artificial intelligence will dominate the planet, just as human beings are the masters of everything. That is to say, if we can implant the right value in artificial intelligence, if we can do this, the artificial intelligence we create can do a good job of what we must do now, but at the same time we must be happy with human beings. Coexistence.

Lu Bai, a professor and brain scientist at Tsinghua University, said: "I will first talk about the function of the human brain. Then look at whether the machine or artificial intelligence can replace it. The human brain has five functions, feeling, movement, memory, emotion and Emotions, cognition. Let me talk about emotions and emotions first. I think everyone can understand the pseudo-propositions of how to make feelings with artificial intelligence or computers. This includes two aspects, one is the generation of emotions and the communication of emotions. Further extension is social. The last aspect is cognition, cognition is divided into two parts, one is general cognition, even animals. I think artificial intelligence can have cognitive functions in this aspect, including thinking logic. , analysis, including making decisions, etc. People have another aspect of cognition called advanced cognitive function, including language, self-awareness, including imagination, creativity, and finally a person's unique purpose. The behavior. Waiting for a chance, I can expand people in these aspects can not be replaced by machines. The reason why people are human is that he is basically It is two different things. "

He believes that computer or artificial intelligence can now achieve the transmission of communication information. In fact, communication is the basic part of social communication. From the basic sense of social communication, there are many rules of social interaction and the way of expression. I simply say two, one is empathy, between the machine and the machine, there is no empathy between the machine and the person. In addition, emotional communication, I am asking the machine some challenges, can add emotional factors to our communication.

Zhang Jianyu, chief economist of WTO, believes that human beings are also products of evolution, but the history of human intelligent evolution in the past is certainly not doubled every 18 months, but Moore's Law is the most mysterious and most wonderful law in the history of human society. . So the machine through the advancement of Moore's Law, the ability of the machine to recognize rational ability can not exceed humans, I think it is affirmative. It is not necessary to let the machine repeat the history of human evolution. He feels that in the near future, he can see that the machine can transcend the part of human reason. But in the part of people's feelings, I don't think it is necessary for the machine to repeat this history.

"There is one of the simplest judgments, whether artificial intelligence has surpassed humans, or reached human level. There is a test method, that is, Turing test, put a curtain behind, whether it is a human or robot dialogue, if you talk If the day does not feel who it is, the machine will reach this level. I feel that it is very difficult to achieve this level. People are irrational parts, and the machine may not learn. But it is completely rational, the machine not only learns Yes, it can surpass humans. So I propose a new test method. Can this robot make a scientific development one day earlier than humans find. So I think it is in the rational part. Because we are the most The scientific discovery of the frontier is still made by people, but one day the machine can suddenly sum up the laws of nature through the analysis of big data, or make a new language. For example, 100 years ago, Einstein can predict the gravitational wave. Exist, maybe the robot can also predict the emergence of a new technology."

Yuan Hui, the founder, chairman and CEO of Xiaoyi Robot, has two core points: First, AI has replaced some standard and repeated human behaviors in many aspects, whether in energy, retail, finance or not. In the application, we talk about artificial intelligence, robots, and everyone has a so-called dream. But artificial intelligence is ubiquitous and does not exist alone in a specific image. Second, we created AI from 60 years ago to today, we continue to develop artificial intelligence, what is our purpose, the greatest characteristic of mankind is that there is constant belief, and there is a constant desire to explore the unknown. Our artificial intelligence is also in this position. At present, there is actually no need to worry too much about the current artificial intelligence, but if we consider artificial intelligence from the human imagination, we have a saying that people are made up of carbon, and carbon can be purified by tens of millions of years. Why? Silicon is not allowed. Human beings finally create artificial intelligence. After all, artificial intelligence is a character created by human beings. If human beings have their own imagination, anything can happen.

According to CNBC, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in an interview on Friday that artificial intelligence will not pose a crisis for American employment for at least 50 to 100 years.

"I think artificial intelligence is replacing the Americans' work in the future. We are far from it," Mchin said in an interview with American media Axios.

Relative to the optimism of the finance minister, experts in the AI ​​field suggest that they should adopt a more cautious approach to new technologies.

A study conducted by Stanford University in September last year stated that “the society is at a critical time in how to deploy AI technology to promote, rather than hinder, democratic values ​​such as freedom, equality and transparency.”

Perhaps the following views will allow economic officials, including Mchin, to re-examine artificial intelligence.

AI technology is already shaping the future

Goldman Sachs analysts published a research report in November last year, saying that the leap between "what people tell computers to do" to "computer independent learning" will have a major impact on various industries. Coincidentally, Goldman Sachs is the former employer of Mchin.

The analyst wrote: "Artificial intelligence is the top technology in the information age. Last year's research made us believe that this is not a wrong beginning, but an inflection point." Increasing computing power, explosive data growth, In-depth learning innovation, professional hardware and the growth of open source software are accelerating the advent of the AI ​​era.

Millions of Americans Face Unemployment

In a report released last December, the White House quoted the OECD estimates that 9% of US jobs are at risk of being replaced by AI. If this means unemployment and displacement, the livelihoods and economies of millions of Americans will face a severe test in a short time.

Stanford researchers believe that specific skill-based tasks are more likely to be replaced by AI than the entire job. A new round of professional revolution will affect many jobs in the near future, from radiologists to truck drivers and gardeners.

According to research by Carl Frey and Michael Osbourne at Oxford University, 47% of jobs in the United States are at risk of being replaced or computerized by AI in the next two decades.

Low-skilled work bears the brunt

Low-skilled jobs with low levels of education are most likely to be affected in the short term. The OECD estimates that 44% of employees in the “highly automatable” position are less educated than high school, and only 1% of employees with bachelor degree or above.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) measured wages and found that 83% of jobs with an hourly wage of less than $20 would face the threat of automation. In contrast, work with an hourly wage between $20 and $40 is affected by AI at 31%. The proportion of jobs with an hourly wage above $40 is only 4% affected by AI.

CEA expects that autonomous driving technology may pose challenges for 2.2 million to 3.1 million road workers. But not all drivers face the same level of risk. For example, a school bus driver who is responsible for driving and caring for children is less likely to be replaced by AI. Intercity bus drivers will be hit harder. For those who need to commute frequently on the road, but the main job is not driving - such as salesman - the application of AI technology can obviously help them improve productivity.

Compared to the low-skilled work, those who need high-level training will not be harmed by AI, but technology can help them improve their work efficiency.

Because of the professional nature, most of the lawyer's work can not be automated, but the use of AI to extract information and case models will undoubtedly help the lawyer's work.

Government role

While AI is replacing some of the work, it will create other new jobs. Experts believe that governments, the private sector and individuals should be prepared for the arrival of these new jobs.

“The ultimate impact on income levels and distribution depends to a large extent on government policies, the way companies organize their work, and the decisions of individuals investing in learning and finding new opportunities,” Stanford University research points out.

Foreign media recently pointed out that artificial intelligence is now a hot area in the technology industry, and China is still behind the West in this field. Due to the lack of high-level talents in China, Chinese technology giants are vigorously recruiting talents from companies such as Google and Facebook, but authoritative experts such as Wu Enda are still hard to find. Wu Enda’s departure is not only a loss of Baidu, but also a blow to Chinese companies’ efforts to compete with Western rivals. The following is a summary of the article:

Artificial intelligence may be the hottest area in the technology industry. China's Internet giants and startups are competing to tap top talent from Google, Facebook, Microsoft and global prestigious universities.

Of course, few of these people can be compared with Wu Enda, who is hired by Baidu in 2014 and is the chief scientist of the company and responsible for artificial intelligence research. As one of the top talents in the global field of artificial intelligence, Wu Enda was responsible for the Google Deep Learning project "Google Brain." He also teaches machine learning courses at Stanford University, and more than 100,000 students attend classes online, ensuring his influence in the field of artificial intelligence for many years to come.

This is why Wu Enda resigned from Baidu’s chief scientist this week and set off an uproar. This is not only a blow to Baidu, but also a blow to Chinese technology companies competing with American rivals.

Although Chinese technology companies are as ambitious as tech giants such as Google, Facebook, and Microsoft, they still lag behind these American rivals in the field of artificial intelligence. This is why they must rely on free-flowing talent to help lead and inspire their engineers. The departure of Wu Enda has made Chinese technology companies' ability to retain overseas talents questionable. Can they also get top-notch artificial intelligence talents like Wu Enda?

“Chinese companies currently have few high-level artificial intelligence talents. Many people are average and not authentic,” said Dong Jielin, an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University’s Technology Innovation Research Center. “Without the guidance of high-level talents, they cannot achieve first-class success.”

The next big opportunities in the technology sector include driverless cars, industrial robots, and preventive health care, because these areas are built around artificial intelligence in one way or another, so Baidu and other Chinese companies are artificial. Smart has invested heavily.

Li Kaifu, CEO of Innovation Workshop, said that artificial intelligence research has just become the main research direction of key universities in China in recent years. Because of this, Chinese companies prefer to hire Chinese engineers who are pursuing degrees in the United States. Many of them have worked on big data infrastructure projects at companies such as Google and Facebook, which are rare in China.

When Baidu hired Wu Enda in 2014, the company had opened a deep learning research lab in Silicon Valley the previous year, but it was difficult to recruit Silicon Valley artificial intelligence talent. "Wu Enda really gave us great help," said a Baidu executive. A Baidu engineer from Northern Europe said in October last year that although his family and friends had never heard of Baidu, he joined Baidu to learn from Wu Enda.

Wu Enda was born in the United Kingdom and her parents were Hong Kong people. After joining Baidu, he shuttled back and forth between Beijing and Baidu's Silicon Valley office. It is not clear why Wu Enda will choose to leave after joining Baidu in less than three years. He did not disclose his intentions. He only said that he will still be engaged in artificial intelligence-related work. Baidu said that they will continue to develop artificial intelligence technology. “We have a deep talent pool,” the company said.

Baidu is one of more than a dozen Chinese companies that have opened artificial intelligence research laboratories in Silicon Valley or Seattle because they are able to hire more talents for artificial intelligence here. Baidu executives said that the company usually provides 15% more salary to artificial intelligence talents who are willing to work in China.

Baidu's main competitors, Alibaba Group and Tencent, are also digging the talents of American companies. Alibaba Group recently announced a long-term strategy to develop technologies including artificial intelligence, vowing to hire top technology talent from around the world.

Today's headline is an artificial intelligence-driven news aggregator application with more than 63 million daily active users. According to sources, the company has hired some artificial intelligence scientists and technicians from Facebook, Microsoft and other Western companies. It is reported that in order to hire artificial intelligence talents, today's headlines have been generously treated: the artificial intelligence-related staff starting salary is 800,000 yuan (about 116,000 US dollars), plus stock options, their income can easily exceed 100 yuan Ten thousand yuan.

In addition to remuneration packages, Chinese companies have an advantage over US competitors: the massive data created by 731 million netizens. Chinese smartphone users use far more equipment than the United States, which creates more data for researchers. This also makes some observers believe that although the big names like Wu Enda have left Baidu, the rising stars in the field of artificial intelligence will still consider doing something in China.

“China has a large market size and innovative application technology, and top Chinese companies are still attractive to top-notch artificial intelligence talent,” said Yan Bin, CEO of Caipital Group. “The Chinese experience will add an important sum to their resume.”

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