Semiconductor lighting is a successful technological revolution. After years of hard work, it has determined its leading position in the transformation of the lighting industry. As a revolutionary technology, the semiconductor lighting industry has a long chain and is widely used. It has the characteristics of multi-disciplinary and multi-field integration, and the synchronization of basic research and applied research. In the future, what disruptive changes may occur to its product form and business model? Recently, Geng Bo, deputy secretary-general of the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R & D and Industry Alliance, was interviewed by reporters to analyze the current status of the industry and look forward to the future development trend of the industry.
Status: achieving interim results
China ’s key technologies for semiconductor lighting have continuously made breakthroughs, and the industrialized light efficiency of silicon-based LED chips with independent intellectual property rights has reached 120lm / W; the proportion of domestic chip import substitution has increased year by year, and has reached 72% in 2012; now 48 pieces have been successfully developed 56 MOVCD prototype for film production; white light semiconductor lighting package is close to international advanced, more than 130 lumens / W. The energy-saving effect of LED has already been shown. Road lighting can save more than 30%, indoor lighting can save more than 50%, and landscape lighting can save more than 70%.
In order to promote LED, the country has carried out system deployment from an overall strategic perspective. In 2012, the State Council arranged 2.2 billion yuan to support the promotion of energy-saving lamps and LED lamps; the Ministry of Commerce launched the “100 cities and 1000 stores†energy-saving demonstration; Energy Saving Industry Planning. The introduction of this series of policies has played a significant role in promoting the semiconductor lighting industry. Correspondingly, local policies are constantly being introduced, and more and more regions are working hard to build a semiconductor lighting industry base. They have successively formulated semiconductor lighting industry plans, issued various supporting policies, and launched semiconductor lighting application demonstration projects.
With the help of policies, 37 pilot cities of "Ten Cities and Ten Thousand Lamps" have implemented more than 2,700 demonstration projects, applied more than seven million LED lamps, and saved more than 2.1 billion kWh of electricity annually. The regional pattern has basically taken shape, and 15 industrialized bases including Xiamen, Shanghai, Dalian, Nanchang, Shenzhen, Yangzhou and Shijiazhuang have initially formed industrial clusters with certain supporting capabilities; 37 “ten cities and ten cities†pilot cities approved by the Ministry of Science and Technology It has played a demonstrative role in promoting the integration and application of semiconductor lighting technology; the Pearl River Delta region has become a production base for China's application products, with more than 50% of semiconductor lighting companies concentrated. The scale of the industry has continued to grow. In 2012, the annual output value reached 1920 billion yuan, an increase of 23% over 2011. Strategic emerging industries have basically been formed. The standard testing system has also been gradually improved. The standard revision plan is mainly oriented to test methods and performance requirements. The new standard formulation mainly involves equipment and materials, devices and modules, light sources and lamps, lighting applications and energy efficiency.
In terms of application, China is a global manufacturing base for lighting products. In 2012, the output value of LED general lighting was close to 42 billion yuan, an increase of 40%; the annual total output was 310 million, a substantial increase in number; the manufacturing capacity and export volume of LED lighting products ranked first in the world. LEDs account for an ever-increasing proportion in general lighting, and commercial and public lighting have become key application areas. The penetration rate in the field of outdoor lighting is relatively high, but the overall market penetration rate is still low, only 1% in 2011, and more than 3% in 2012; the initial demonstration project has driven the transformation of the municipal system into a major market for lighting applications, focusing on roads, Tunnels, squares, subway lighting and other public lighting fields; and commercial lighting has become the fastest-growing segment application market with good economy.
Geng Bo said that in 2012, the LED industry showed new characteristics: investment hot spots gradually shifted. In 2012, the overall investment amount decreased significantly, only about half of that in 2011, and investment hotspots were shifted to the midstream and downstream. In 2011, the midstream and downstream links accounted for about 26%, and in 2012 it reached 68%. Enterprise listing and integration have accelerated. At present, there are 19 listed companies with LED as the main business in China, of which 13 involve the midstream and downstream links, there are more than 40 related listed companies with LED concept, more than 10 companies are waiting for IPO, industrial mergers and acquisitions represented by listed companies has already appeared.
Move forward in the challenge
To date, the development of LEDs still presents major challenges. Insufficient technological innovation capabilities, market irregularities, industrial resource agglomeration, and imperfect development environment have all become bottlenecks restricting industry development at this stage.
At present, corporate profit margins are gradually decreasing. Product prices have dropped significantly, with a drop of about 25% to 40%, but with the rapid increase in sales volume, sales revenue has not increased simultaneously. The market environment is still not standardized, the product quality is uneven, the price war is intensifying, and even the price of the same product in the financial subsidy bidding is very different. Products lack characteristics, limited market channels, and fierce price competition. Imperfect standards and certification systems, poor product interchangeability, poor product quality reliability, messy prices, quality, and brands, consumers have no choice, which greatly affects consumer confidence.
In addition, the business model also needs to be explored urgently. At present, the engineering channel is the most important marketing method for LED application companies. The retail channels such as the professional lighting market and the traditional channels such as supermarkets and malls have slowly improved their voices. Diversified channels and models such as exclusive experience stores, e-commerce, and integrated service providers need to be further. explore.
In the future, the release of production capacity under the new round of IPO will outweigh the increase in demand. Inadequate operating rates and inventory pressure will lead to intensified competition in the industry and the profit margin will continue to decline. The investment in downstream applications continues to be hot, price competition is fierce, and export expectations are uncertain. All of the above have formed a huge test for LED companies.
In this regard, Geng Bo said that LED companies should find out the future development direction of the industry. In the future, the lighting application market will accelerate the penetration rate. The industrial, commercial, and road lighting markets with large electricity consumption are still the main development direction. It is expected that the average penetration rate of the overall LED lighting market in 2013 may reach 9%. With the decline in the price of LED lamps and the further improvement of cost performance, it is estimated that it will take 2 years to enter home lighting.
Innovation will be an ongoing theme. The main goal of technological innovation is still to significantly reduce the cost of terminal application products; the application of new materials and new designs is the main direction of cost reduction; technology is developing towards integration; new product forms have emerged, gradually moving towards intelligent, networked, Integrated.
For the future, according to the plan, in 2015, China's semiconductor lighting industry will strive to break through the strategic layout of European, American and Japanese patents, and the penetration rate of the functional lighting market will reach 30%; the goal of 2020 is to spread to thousands of households and become a world LED industry power. To accomplish this goal, the main tasks in the near future are to enhance technological innovation capabilities, build an enterprise-based innovation system, promote cross-disciplinary cooperation, and establish a public technology platform; improve the industrial ecosystem, formulate technically supported standards, and promote testing technology 1. The implementation of method standards, establish quality control methods and means; increase industry concentration, promote mergers and acquisitions and reorganization, coordinate the central and local governments, and explore new ways to develop China's technology industry.
In this process, the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R & D and Industry Alliance will also play an important role. The alliance was established in 2004 by domestic key enterprises, universities and scientific research institutions engaged in the semiconductor lighting industry. Since its establishment, the alliance has made many achievements in supporting government decision-making, leading technological innovation, and organizing industrial service platform construction. The Alliance has nearly 300 member units from the Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan and registered foreign institutions in China. In recent years, it has played an important role in enhancing the international competitiveness of China's lighting industry.
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