Liu Yingkuan, China's new energy expert and chairman of Ningxia Power Generation Group Co., Ltd., predicted in an interview with a reporter from the Central Radio Station that China should arrange at least 150 million kilowatts of solar photovoltaic power generation in the next 10 years to meet the strong social and environmental demand for renewable energy. . Liu Yingkuan, chairman of Ningxia Power Generation Group Co., Ltd., was interviewed by reporters at the site of the full-scale photovoltaic power plant Ningxia Hongsibao solar power station in China.
He believes that by the end of this year, the country's power generation capacity will be 4.5 trillion kWh, and by 2020, the GDP will double. According to the electric elasticity coefficient of 1, the national full-caliber power generation in 2020 will reach 9 trillion kWh. Coal supply and environmental sustainability will be greatly challenged. Water electrodes may be constrained by resources and the environment. Nuclear power is also bound to be restricted by nuclear safety. Therefore, wind power and new photovoltaic energy will become the main development poles of energy.
At that time, the gap in demand for electricity can be solved by solar photovoltaic power generation and other renewable energy sources and energy conservation. Solar photovoltaic power generation needs to contribute about 0.2-0.3 trillion kWh of electricity, and the corresponding installed capacity should be more than 150 million kilowatts. Therefore, it is recommended that at least 150 million to 200 million kilowatts of solar photovoltaic power plants be installed in China in the next 10 years.
Liu Yingkuan said that solar photovoltaic power generation costs and electricity prices are also the most concerned. At present, according to the practice of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation, the main factor affecting the large-scale development of photovoltaic power generation is the high construction cost of crystalline silicon photovoltaic power plants and the actual electricity and theoretical power. For the big gap, the actual utilization hours are 15% to 20% lower than the theoretical utilization hours, which is mainly caused by air pollution.
As a result, the total cost of electricity on the grid of solar power generation at the current cost level is far from the price of thermal power grid. It is about 3 to 4 times the price of thermal power grids, and about 2 times the price of wind power. However, it should be noted that the time available for photovoltaic power generation is at the peak of the power load, with the depletion of traditional energy sources and rising prices, coupled with policy support and guidance from the state, and the organization of photovoltaic power generation including polysilicon production. The technical research on grid-connected equipment manufacturing has reduced the construction cost of photovoltaic power plants as soon as possible. At present, there has been an on-grid price of 0.7 yuan per degree.
By 2020, the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation will likely compete with the average on-grid price of thermal power generation, and the price/performance ratio may be lower than the national average price of on-grid electricity. Therefore, he suggested that the state should adopt price leverage and policy measures to encourage the rapid and orderly construction of solar photovoltaic grid-connected power stations.
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