(Original title: What type of public official will be replaced in the era of artificial intelligence)
Man-machine future
In recent years, with the exponential growth in cloud computing capabilities, data-driven possibilities, and mature algorithmic triple-driving force, artificial intelligence has not only become possible, but has also been achieved in information search, speech recognition, driverless cars, etc. Significant progress. In particular, the Alpha Dog beat Li Shishi, and artificial intelligence became the talking point for everyone on the streets. There is no doubt that artificial intelligence has come as a future. What impact will it have on general public officials?
Artificial intelligence is divided into three stages: weak artificial intelligence, strong artificial intelligence, and superartificial intelligence. The main criterion for distinguishing is whether it exceeds the level of intelligence of human beings. It is lower than weak artificial intelligence, equal to strong artificial intelligence, and exceeding it is super artificial intelligence. At present we are in a weak artificial intelligence stage and for quite a long period of time.
In the era of weak artificial intelligence, part of the work of public officials will certainly be replaced. Artificial intelligence is less demanding for intelligence, simpler and more repetitive tasks with less emotional involvement, and weaker alternatives for complex intelligence with high intelligence requirements and emotional involvement. The administrative work varies greatly, both with types of high intelligence and high emotional involvement, and with low intelligence and low emotional involvement. The former is more difficult to be replaced, while the latter is more easily replaced.
For example, in the future, firefighters assaulting in a hostile environment such as a fire site, traffic policemen who perform patrol tasks on roads mainly driven by driverless vehicles, and court clerks, typists of units, etc., have relatively low technological content. I believe it will gradually be partially replaced by robots. Of course, the replacement of such dangerous or monotonous or mechanically repetitive work will undoubtedly bring more challenges and better experience to human work.
However, administrative work that requires higher intelligence and more emotional input can never be replaced. "High-level public service jobs that can be held in the middle of a battle, and winning from a distance of thousands of miles," and the need to invest in real feelings of face-to-face communication with the public are absolutely not the only jobs that robots with artificial intelligence can afford.
In particular, it needs to be pointed out that while artificial intelligence substitutes for some administrative tasks, it will also create new administrative tasks and even more new administrative tasks.
From the perspective of historical practice, when every major technological revolution is concerned, people will always worry about whether they will bring about a lot of unemployment. Whether it is the steam engine revolution or the widespread use of electricity, it is not so. However, it has been proved that the new technology revolution is eliminating certain The number of old jobs has also created more new jobs. Artificial intelligence is no exception. In the future, when artificial intelligence is replacing some typists, it will certainly create more community work opportunities.
Some people may worry that public officials in the era of strong artificial intelligence and ultra-artificial intelligence will be completely replaced. It can be said with certainty that this will not only require long-term technical iterations, it will be difficult to see in our lifetime, and it can truly achieve strong labor. Both intelligence and hyperartificial intelligence require high suspicion. In particular, humans will take various measures to achieve human-computer interaction. That is, human beings use artificial intelligence to improve their abilities rather than let artificial intelligence deviate from the track of human control. As "Xunzi Encouragement," said, "The gentleman is good at things and fakers, and it's a thousand miles away from false horses.
In short, irrespective of whether civil servants are willing or not, artificial intelligence will inevitably partially replace the work of public officials. This is a mighty historical trend.
Guo Quanzhong (Senior Economist, Department of Social and Cultural Studies, National School of Administration)
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